# Cumberland Discrepancy — Receipts Index Maps every finding (C-1 through C-34) to the supporting screenshots that prove it. **Conventions:** - `screenshots/{county}/NN_*.jpg` = chase screenshots in the deployed site - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/{county}.jpg` = Cumberland-only Table 9 row extracts (Travis's stitching set) - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/{compilation}.jpg` = stitched multi-county compositions - Boundary screenshots from `/Cumberland chase/Boundry testing a PDF/` were copied into county galleries with prefix `9N_BOUNDARY_*.jpg` **Status legend:** ✓ visually confirmed in chase | ⊕ database + chase | ⚡ FEMA self-admission | ⚠ retracted --- ## C-1 — Davidson Vol 2 jurisdictional violation (RECLASSIFIED from label-shift) **Claim:** Davidson Vol 2 publishes regulatory rows for two stations, neither inside Davidson's actual Cumberland jurisdiction. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/davidson/05_v2_p63_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` — Davidson Vol 2 Table 9 with both rows visible - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson.jpg` — isolated Davidson rows, DA 12,691.4 / 11,673.9 highlighted - SnapBasin click at Harpeth confluence (36.30728°N, -87.15432°W) → returns Cheatham 100% (verifies "Harpeth conf" is in Cheatham not Davidson) — captured in audit transcript - SnapBasin click at Davidson/Cheatham boundary (36.21010°N, -86.98530°W) → DA 12,668 (verifies actual jurisdictional limit doesn't match either of Davidson's published rows) **Strongest single image:** Travis's `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson.jpg` paired with SnapBasin Cheatham geographic verification ✓ --- ## C-2 — Sumner→Cheatham DA monotonicity violation **Claim:** Sumner published DA 13,589 at Davidson border > Cheatham's 13,259 at Harpeth conf (downstream). DA shrunk going downstream — geographically impossible. **Receipts:** - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/sumner.jpg` — Sumner row showing DA 13,589 at DC boundary - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/cheatham.jpg` — Cheatham row showing DA 13,259 at Harpeth conf - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson to stewart.jpg` — full longitudinal context **Strongest:** stitch of Sumner DCB row + Cheatham Harpeth conf row side-by-side ⊕ --- ## C-3 — Tuple A 5-tuple shared across 4 county FIS volumes (defensible-but-suspicious) **Claim:** Identical [115/128/140/155/190] tuple appears at 4 different physical stations across 4 county volumes. Defensible for dam-controlled regulated reach, suspicious if stations were calculated independently. **Receipts:** - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson.jpg` — Davidson Harpeth conf row [115/128/140/155/190] - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/cheatham.jpg` — Cheatham Harpeth conf [same tuple] - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/dickson.jpg` — Dickson Harpeth conf [same tuple, footnote ⁴ "Added from Cheatham 2016"] - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/sumner.jpg` — Sumner DCB row [same tuple] - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson to stewart.jpg` — composite showing all 4 in one frame **Strongest:** the `davidson to stewart.jpg` compilation — eye can see all 4 rows carry the same 5 numbers across different DAs ⊕ --- ## C-4 — Tuple C copy-paste Wilson↔Trousdale **Claim:** [110/138/157/190] tuple at Wilson RM 264.7 + Trousdale Mile 280.0 + Trousdale Mile 269.9 — three different river miles, identical flows. **Receipts:** - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/wilson.jpg` — Wilson row at RM 264.7 - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/trousdale.jpg` — Trousdale Mile 280.0 + 269.9 rows - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/trousdale (b).jpg` — second Trousdale view **Strongest:** Wilson and Trousdale Cumberland-only flows side-by-side ⊕ --- ## C-5 — Trousdale internal same-volume duplicate **Claim:** Mile 280.0 and Mile 269.9 within the same Trousdale FIS Vol carry identical [110/138/157/190] tuples. **Receipts:** - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/trousdale.jpg` — both rows visible in same screenshot - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/trousdale (b).jpg` — confirmation view **Strongest:** `trousdale.jpg` — two rows in same county FIS with identical numbers ⊕ --- ## C-6 — Trousdale Mile 260.7 carrying OHD values 45 mi upstream **Claim:** Trousdale Mile 260.7 row published [120/146/158/193] — same tuple as Wilson RM 216.2 + Sumner OHD (legitimate boundary share). Trousdale's match is 45 river miles upstream of OHD — geographic mis-application. **Receipts:** - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/trousdale.jpg` — Mile 260.7 row visible - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/wilson.jpg` — Wilson RM 216.2 [same tuple, legitimate at OHD boundary] - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/sumner.jpg` — Sumner OHD [same tuple, legitimate] **Strongest:** Trousdale + Wilson + Sumner flows side-by-side ⊕ --- ## C-7 — Dickson imports Cumberland data from Cheatham FIS 2016 (REVISED) **Claim:** Dickson Vol 1 Table 9 footnote ⁴ explicitly states 'Added from Cheatham County FIS 2016'. Dickson imports while Cheatham's current FIS is 2021 — staleness risk + duplicate authority risk. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/dickson/02_v1_p32_table9_FOOTNOTE_added_from_cheatham_2016.jpg` — Dickson Table 9 with footnote ⁴ visible - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/dickson.jpg` — Dickson rows isolated - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/cheatham.jpg` — Cheatham rows for comparison (identical to Dickson) - Live cumberland-discrepancy map showing purple Dickson pins along the Cheatham/Dickson boundary **Strongest:** the footnote screenshot + the live cross-section map confirming geographic legitimacy of the boundary share ✓ --- ## C-8 — RETRACTED — Davidson H&H records DO exist (Vol 3 Table 12) ⚠ **Receipts (showing the retraction is correct):** - `screenshots/davidson/07_v3_p138_table12_hh_analyses.jpg` — Davidson Vol 3 Table 12 with Cumberland H&H entries **Status:** Original C-8 was a parser bug, not a FEMA gap. C-15 supersedes. --- ## C-9 — Multiple methodologies output identical 5-tuple (defensible-but-suspicious) **Claim:** 4 county rows sharing Tuple A used: Sumner regression USGS 2003 + HEC-RAS, Davidson Cheatham Pool Study, Cheatham USACE study + AECOM 2017, Dickson imported from Cheatham 2016. Defensible for shared dam-release calibration; suspicious if independent. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/sumner/...` (when Sumner chase happens) — regression citation in Sumner H&H - `screenshots/davidson/07_v3_p138_table12_hh_analyses.jpg` — Davidson Cheatham Pool study citation - `screenshots/cheatham/06_v1_p49_table12_hh_SPF_admission.jpg` — Cheatham H&H + SPF admission - `screenshots/dickson/02_v1_p32_table9_FOOTNOTE_added_from_cheatham_2016.jpg` — Dickson import receipt **Strongest:** the four T12 H&H pages stitched into one compilation (TODO: Travis can build this) ⊕ --- ## C-10 — RETRACTED — Davidson V1 Table 2 DOES list Cumberland River ⚠ **Receipts (showing the retraction is correct):** - `screenshots/davidson/01_v1_p20_table2_flooding_sources.jpg` — Davidson V1 Table 2 with Cumberland row visible **Status:** Parser bug, not FEMA gap. Real Davidson concerns documented in C-1, C-14, C-15. --- ## C-11 — Regional batch-publishing pattern **Claim:** Multiple counties published FIS reports on identical dates (Jan 15 2021: Dickson/Montgomery/Stewart; Feb 26 2021: Cheatham/Sumner; Apr 25 2024: Wilson/Jackson; Sep 29 2010: Trousdale/Clay). **Receipts:** - Each county's Vol 1 cover page or Table 28 Contracted Studies (date stamps visible) - `screenshots/davidson/01_v1_p20_table2_flooding_sources.jpg` (Davidson 2024 date) - `screenshots/cheatham/01_v1_p16_table2_flooding_sources.jpg` (Cheatham 2021) - `screenshots/dickson/01_v1_p16_table2_flooding_sources.jpg` (Dickson 2021) - `screenshots/montgomery/01_v1_p17_table2_flooding_sources_1982.jpg` (Montgomery 1982) - Cross-referenced from FEMA FIS Flow Database COUNTY SUMMARY tab **Strongest:** database screenshot showing FIS_YEAR column ⊕ --- ## C-12 — Montgomery Red River confluence DA jump (verified clean) **Claim:** Montgomery Mile 125.3 → Mile 125.2 DA jump 14,442 → 15,897 (+1,455) over 0.1 river mile = Red River confluence. Physically explained, not a violation. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/montgomery/03_v1_p31_table9_cumberland_2_rows.jpg` — both Montgomery rows visible **Strongest:** Montgomery Table 9 showing the two adjacent rows ✓ --- ## C-13 — Davidson Stones Q500 = Cheatham Dam Q500 = 255,000 (partial Frankenstein) **Claim:** Davidson Stones row Q500 (DA 11,673.9) matches Cheatham Dam Q500 (DA 14,160). Same value at very different DAs. **Receipts:** - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson.jpg` — Davidson Stones row Q500=255,000 - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/cheatham.jpg` — Cheatham Dam row Q500=255,000 **Strongest:** Davidson + Cheatham flows side-by-side ⊕ --- ## C-14 — ⭐ Davidson Vol 2 Nashville USGS gage cited but unrepresented in Table 9 **Claim:** Vol 2 Table 11 cites gage 03431500 'Cumberland River at Nashville' DA 12,856. Vol 2 Table 9 has DA 11,673.9 and 12,691.4 — neither matches 12,856. Documented federal gage source is unrepresented in published flows. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/davidson/06_v2_p130_table11_stream_gages.jpg` — Table 11 showing TWO gages (OHD + Nashville) - `screenshots/davidson/05_v2_p63_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` — Table 9 showing only 2 rows, neither at DA 12,856 - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson.jpg` — both DAs highlighted **Strongest:** the Table 11 + Table 9 pair side-by-side ⊕ --- ## C-15 — ⭐ Davidson uses Cheatham Pool study for upstream Cumberland flows **Claim:** Davidson Vol 3 Table 12 cites 'Cumberland River - Cheatham Pool Flood Frequency Update Report' (USACE 2012a). The Cheatham Pool is downstream of Davidson — Davidson's Table 9 stations (Stones conf, Harpeth conf) are upstream. Methodology mismatch. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/davidson/07_v3_p138_table12_hh_analyses.jpg` — Davidson Vol 3 Table 12 with Cheatham Pool citation - `screenshots/davidson/17_v6_p369_bibliography_USACE_2012a_cheatham_pool.jpg` — Bibliography entry confirming USACE 2012a publication **Strongest:** Vol 3 T12 + Vol 6 bibliography pair ⊕ --- ## C-16 — Old Hickory Lake Cumberland reach uses 1979 USACE study (47 yrs old) **Receipts:** - `screenshots/davidson/15_v6_p346_table28_contracted_studies.jpg` — Cumberland Old Hickory Lake row, Work Completed 01/01/1979 - `screenshots/davidson/16_v6_p368_bibliography_USACE_1979.jpg` — Bibliography entry "USACE 1979 Flood Frequency Study for the Cumberland River Basin" **Strongest:** Vol 6 Tables 28 + 32 paired ⊕ --- ## C-17 — 115 Davidson cross sections from 2 published discharges (SOFTENED) **Claim:** Defensible for dam-controlled reach but structurally amplifies any error in the 2 input flows. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/davidson/09_v4_p205_table23_csxn_A-V.jpg` through `14_v4_p210_table23_csxn_DG-DK.jpg` — 6 pages = 115 cross sections - `screenshots/davidson/05_v2_p63_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` — only 2 published Q points - Live cumberland-discrepancy map — 115 Davidson red pins traced along the river **Strongest:** the live map showing the actual cross-section count vs the Table 9 sparsity ⊕ --- ## C-18 — 2010 Nashville historic peak (188,000 cfs / ~Q100) at unrepresented gage **Receipts:** - `screenshots/davidson/04_v1_p45_table6_historic_2010.jpg` — Vol 1 Table 6 showing 52.55 ft / 188,000 cfs at Nashville gage 2010-05-03 **Strongest:** the Table 6 historic flooding record ✓ --- ## C-19 — Cheatham Q4% "Not Calculated" for lower Cumberland reach **Receipts:** - `screenshots/cheatham/04_v1_p31_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` — Cheatham Vol 1 Table 9 with Q4 = "*" - `screenshots/cheatham/13_v2_floodprofile_csxn_E_ODD_PROFILE_p019.jpg` — flood profile plate showing Q4% "DATA NOT AVAILABLE" **Strongest:** Table 9 paired with the "odd profile" plate ✓ --- ## C-20 — Cheatham Q500 footnoted as Standard Project Flood **Receipts:** - `screenshots/cheatham/04_v1_p31_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` — Q0.2=253,000 with footnote ³ **Strongest:** Cheatham Table 9 with footnote visible ⚡ --- ## C-21 — Cheatham gage 03435000 stopped 1991, missed 2010 **Receipts:** - `screenshots/cheatham/05_v1_p45_table11_stream_gages.jpg` — period 1927 to 02/20/1991 - `screenshots/cheatham/03_v1_p27_table6_historic_table7_dam.jpg` — 2010 Clarksville gage at Greater than 500 yr **Strongest:** Table 11 paired with Table 6 ⊕ --- ## C-22 — Cheatham cites OHD gage (different county, smaller DA) **Receipts:** - `screenshots/cheatham/05_v1_p45_table11_stream_gages.jpg` — both gages cited **Strongest:** Table 11 ⊕ --- ## C-23 — ⭐⭐⭐ FOUND ADMISSION: SPF substituted for Q500 (FEMA's own words) **Claim:** Cheatham Vol 1 Table 12 explicitly states the published Q0.2 column for the lower Cumberland is filled with USACE Standard Project Flood values, NOT 500-year frequency discharges. Direct quote in the FIS. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/cheatham/06_v1_p49_table12_hh_SPF_admission.jpg` — the FOUND ADMISSION page **Strongest:** ⚡⚡⚡ Single most powerful receipt in the entire audit. FEMA's own document admits the violation. --- ## C-24 — Dickson Vol 1 Table 9 footnote ⁴ "Added from Cheatham County FIS 2016" **Receipts:** - `screenshots/dickson/02_v1_p32_table9_FOOTNOTE_added_from_cheatham_2016.jpg` **Strongest:** the footnote screenshot ✓ --- ## C-25 — Dickson + Cheatham overlapping cross-section data **Receipts:** - `screenshots/dickson/05_v2_p58_table23_csxn_A-E_overlaps_cheatham.jpg` — Dickson Table 23 - `screenshots/cheatham/08_v2_p65_table23_floodway_csxn_A-S.jpg` — Cheatham Table 23 - Live map: red Cheatham pins + purple Dickson pins overlap on the same river segment **Strongest:** Table 23 pages paired + the live map showing overlap ⊕ --- ## C-26 — Montgomery 1982 Cumberland data (oldest in chain, 44 yrs) **Receipts:** - `screenshots/montgomery/01_v1_p17_table2_flooding_sources_1982.jpg` — Date of Analysis 06/08/1982 - `screenshots/montgomery/07_v2_p102_table28_USACE_1982_contract.jpg` — USACE IAA-H-9-79 PO 13, Work Completed June 1982 **Strongest:** Tables 2 + 28 paired ⊕ --- ## C-27 — Montgomery Q500=253,000 NOT footnoted as SPF **Claim:** Same value Cheatham + Dickson footnote as SPF; Montgomery silently propagates without disclosure. **Receipts:** - `screenshots/montgomery/03_v1_p31_table9_cumberland_2_rows.jpg` — no footnote - `screenshots/cheatham/04_v1_p31_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` — same value with footnote ³ **Strongest:** Montgomery Table 9 + Cheatham Table 9 side-by-side showing the asymmetry ⊕ --- ## C-28 — Q4% Not Calculated across THREE counties for the same Cumberland reach **Receipts:** - `screenshots/cheatham/04_v1_p31_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` (Q4=*) - `screenshots/dickson/02_v1_p32_table9_FOOTNOTE_added_from_cheatham_2016.jpg` (Q4=*) - `screenshots/montgomery/03_v1_p31_table9_cumberland_2_rows.jpg` (Q4=*) - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson to stewart.jpg` — composite shows the asterisk pattern across counties **Strongest:** the davidson-to-stewart compilation makes the Q4 asterisks pop visually ⊕ --- ## C-29 — Clay Cumberland published DA = 1,043 (LOCAL only) — convention mismatch **Receipts:** - `screenshots/clay/02_v1_p4_table1_KY_GAGE_LOCAL_DA_1043.jpg` — Clay's Table 1 published DA - `screenshots/clay/01_v1_p2_area_studied_HYDROPOWER_REPURPOSE.jpg` — narrative showing "no local drainage was considered" (regulated below Wolf Creek Dam) - `screenshots/clay/99_BOUNDARY_to_KY_WOW_DA_truth.jpg` — SnapBasin click at KY border showing actual NHD DA 6,136 sq mi **Strongest:** the WOW screenshot side-by-side with Clay's Table 1 — visual proof of 6x understatement ⊕ --- ## C-30 — Jackson has no detailed Cumberland study despite full sub-basin coverage **Receipts:** - `screenshots/jackson/01_v1_p18_table4_NO_DETAILED_STUDY.jpg` — Vol 1 Table 4 showing entire county in Cumberland sub-basin - `screenshots/jackson/00_NOTE_no_detailed_study.txt` — Travis's note documenting absence **Strongest:** Table 4 entry showing 322 sq mi local DA but no detailed study ✓ --- ## C-31 — ⭐ Smith Q100 < documented 63-yr historic peak (mathematically impossible) **Receipts:** - `screenshots/smith/03_v1_p21_TABLE6_HISTORIC_1926_210000cfs_63yr.jpg` — Vol 1 Table 6: 1926 peak 210,000 cfs at 63-yr recurrence - `screenshots/smith/06_v1_p27_table9_cumberland_rows.jpg` — Vol 1 Table 9: Cumberland Q100 = 145,000 at Mile 304 **Strongest:** Tables 6 + 9 paired showing the contradiction ⊕ --- ## C-32 — Stewart publishes Q100 ONLY, asterisks Q10/Q4/Q2/Q500 **Receipts:** - `screenshots/stewart/03_v1_p31_TABLE9_ONLY_Q100_PUBLISHED.jpg` — Stewart Table 9 with 4 of 5 columns asterisked - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/stewart.jpg` — Stewart row isolated showing only Q100 filled **Strongest:** Stewart Table 9 + the cumberland-only flows view ⊕ --- ## C-33 — Stewart includes "Cumberland River Tributary 1" in Trigg County KY **Receipts:** - `screenshots/stewart/03_v1_p31_TABLE9_ONLY_Q100_PUBLISHED.jpg` — row footnoted ¹ "Located in Trigg County, KY" **Strongest:** Stewart Table 9 with the cross-state footnote visible ✓ --- ## C-34 — Cheatham + Davidson dual-publish the SAME physical Cumberland station **Claim:** Same physical station ("Cumberland River at the confluence of Harpeth River") has regulatory rows in Cheatham Vol 1 (legitimate) AND Davidson Vol 2 (jurisdictionally invalid per C-1). Different DAs, identical flows. **Receipts:** - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/cheatham.jpg` — Cheatham row 555 at Harpeth conf - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson.jpg` — Davidson row 879 at "Harpeth conf" - `discrepency Screenshot/cumberland only flows/davidson to stewart.jpg` — both rows visible in the same compilation - SnapBasin click at Harpeth conf returning Cheatham 100% (the geographic verification) **Strongest:** the davidson-to-stewart compilation paired with the SnapBasin Cheatham 100% screenshot ⊕ --- ## Stitched compilations Travis built (cumberland only flows folder) | File | Counties shown | Best for findings | |---|---|---| | `cheatham.jpg` | Cheatham 3 rows | C-3, C-7, C-19, C-20, C-23, C-28 | | `clay.jpg` | Clay 1 row | C-29 | | `davidson.jpg` | Davidson 2 rows | C-1, C-13, C-14, C-15 | | `dickson.jpg` | Dickson 3 rows | C-3, C-7, C-24, C-28 | | `montgomery.jpg` | Montgomery 2 rows | C-12, C-26, C-27, C-28 | | `smith.jpg` | Smith 2 rows | C-31 | | `stewart.jpg` | Stewart 2 rows | C-32, C-33 | | `sumner.jpg` | Sumner 2 rows | C-2, C-3, C-6 | | `trousdale.jpg` / `trousdale (b).jpg` | Trousdale rows | C-4, C-5, C-6 | | `wilson.jpg` | Wilson rows | C-4, C-6 | | `clay to stewart.jpg` | Full longitudinal Cumberland | OVERVIEW for paper intro | | `clay to sumner.jpg` | Upper Cumberland reach | C-4, C-5, C-6 | | `davidson to stewart.jpg` | Lower Cumberland reach | C-1, C-2, C-3, C-7, C-13, C-19, C-20, C-23, C-24, C-28, C-32, C-34 | --- ## Suggested next stitches (per finding) For findings that would benefit from a dedicated multi-source compilation but don't have one yet: - **C-1 (jurisdictional)** — pair Davidson Table 9 + SnapBasin Cheatham 100% click + Davidson/Cheatham boundary click into one frame - **C-9 (methodology mismatch)** — stitch the four T12 H&H pages from Sumner + Davidson + Cheatham + Dickson side by side - **C-14 (Nashville gage)** — pair Davidson Vol 2 Table 11 (showing Nashville gage cited) with Davidson Vol 2 Table 9 (no row at DA 12,856) - **C-23 (FOUND ADMISSION)** — high-resolution single screenshot of Cheatham V1 p49 Table 12 paragraph, this is the headline image for the paper --- ## Summary | Finding count | Status | |---|---| | 34 total findings (C-1 through C-34) | ✓ | | Verified via chase screenshots | 27 | | Verified via FEMA self-admission | 1 (C-23) | | Database-only (await chase) | 4 (C-2, C-4, C-5, C-6 will gain visual receipts after Wilson/Sumner/Trousdale chases) | | Retracted as parser bugs | 2 (C-8, C-10) | **Strongest 5 findings for the paper / Holley follow-up:** 1. **C-23** — FOUND ADMISSION (FEMA's own words admitting SPF-as-Q500) 2. **C-1** — Jurisdictional violation (Davidson published outside its boundary) 3. **C-31** — Smith Q100 < documented 63-yr historic peak (mathematical contradiction) 4. **C-14** — Nashville gage cited but unrepresented in Table 9 5. **C-15** — Cheatham Pool study mis-applied to upstream Davidson stations --- *Updated 2026-04-26 evening — paired with Cumberland Discrepancy site v0.6*